Abstract

During the period of economic transition in China，a large amount of rural labor force is migrating to the urban area with the acceleration of the urbanization process. They move from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector，from less developed regions to the more developed areas with higher level of economic development. The classic theory of development economics tells us that since the technological disparities exist between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors，the reallocation of labor between the two departments is necessary to eliminate the urban-rural dual economic structure and to achieve the modernization of agriculture and the prosperity of the rural area. Hence，the rural-urban migration is one of the greatest social changes facing China in the 21st century.

The Classic theory of labor migration tells us that，when considering the differences in the levels of human capital endowment，the coincidence between the scarcity point of agricultural products and the commercialization point will be delayed，and the wage gap between the agricultural sector and industrial sector will be even greater. As a result，the process of agricultural modernization will be extended. At this point，the rising of human capital level is an important determinant for the sustainable development of the agricultural sector. The continuous development in agriculture requires not only the formation mechanism of the higher level of technological advances in agriculture，which adapts the high-human capital labor’s outflow，but also the growth rate of per capita human capital investment higher than the decline rate in the per capita human capital generated by the high-human capital labor’s outflow to the industrial sector.

However，the unique national situations and institutional environment in China determine that China’s rural-urban migration follows a specific path with “Chinese characteristics”. With the ongoing rural-urban migration in China，the overall cultivations and skills for either the labor force staying in the agricultural sector or rural-urban migration groups have had some increase，but not of a great magnitude. The overall human capital investment is still not enough in the rural area，and there hasn’t been a “qualitative leap” in the human capital accumulation. At the same time，for those labor force who stays in the rural area，their human capital structure has shown “aging”，“women and children left behind” and some other deteriorating trends.

This raises the question that what kind of impact that China’s rural-urban migration may have on the human capital accumulation in rural areas？Will this change in the human capital structure affect its agricultural modernization and rural area’s development in the long run？

This book focuses on the rural-urban migration and its relationship with the human capital accumulation in rural areas. We concern about the important role that human capital accumulation in rural areas has on the long-run development of agricultural sector and the urbanization process. With the empirical analysis，we study the specific relationship between rural-urban migration and rural human capital accumulation. It demonstrates that this relationship is different from the general “strong correlation” between them and has the “weak correlation” feature. From this，we point out that the “strong correlation” between rural-urban migration and the rise of rural human capital has not fully exhibited yet，but has been delayed. Based on this，we further explore institutional factors that have caused this “weak correlation” and policies to build up the “strong correlation” between rural-urban migration and the rise of rural human capital in China.

The analyzing perspectives in this book include micro and macro analysis，the longitudinal developing history and the horizontal home and abroad comparisons，etc. The primary empirical study methodology is time series analysis，including the cointegration analysis，the vector error correction model （VECM），the impulse response analysis and so on. The chapter structure follows the line of theoretical analysis，statistical descriptions and empirical tests，and then the institutional analysis and the policy system design. The paper is divided into eight chapters，and each chapter is described as follows：

Chapter 1，the introduction section. It points out the study background，the meaning of topics and related concepts’ definition. At the same time，it generally introduces the analytical framework，research methodologies，the innovation of this paper and difficulties that may be encountered.

Chapter 2，the literature review. First，it reviews the classic theoretical model of rural-urban migration and the latest development in this field；Secondly，it summarizes the basic conclusions of human capital theory and human capital empirical study；Thirdly，it briefly describes the domestic and foreign study on the impact of labor migration on the source region’s human capital accumulation.

Chapter 3，based on the theoretical model of classic rural urban migration，it theoretically analyzes the general relationship between rural-urban migration and the accumulation of human capital in rural areas. It points out that when the probability of migration is in a certain range，the rural-urban migration has a positive “strong” effect on the rise of human capital in rural areas. Some practical evidences from western countries are also used for the demonstration. From these analyses，under the rural-urban migration’s “strong correlation” effect，the human capital accumulation in the agricultural sector is a dynamic process. In the long run，the promotion effect from the continuous human capital investment in the agricultural sector can offset or outweigh the loss of human capital effect from the labor force’s outflow. This process can gradually raise the overall knowledge and skill levels of the agricultural labor force and enhance the agricultural sector’s human capital accumulation，which is essential to the further development of the agricultural sector.

Chapter 4，it reviews the development history of rural-urban migration in China since its reform and opening up and compares it with rural-urban migration experiences in some western countries. Based on these，it analyzes the characteristics of China’s rural-urban migration in the economic transition and reveals its particularity. Then based on the real statistics，it analyzes current situations and types of China’s rural-urban migration，as well as demonstrates the current lack of human capital accumulation in rural areas.

Chapter 5，based on the particularity of rural-urban migration in China and the inadequate improvement in the rural labor force’s overall skill and quality，we empirically test the specific relationship of the rural-urban migration in China and rural human capital accumulation with the statistical data. It shows that the “strong correlation” effect of China’s rural-urban migration on the rise of rural human capital is not obvious. The former has a certain role on the latter，but it is “weak”. Then we explain this “weak correlation” characteristic. With many problems and obstacles existent in the process of rural-urban migration in China，it limits the role of the “strong correlation” effect from the rural-urban migration on the rise of human capital in rural areas.

Chapter 6，it explores the institutional sources behind the “weak correlation” characteristic between the rural-urban migration and the rise of human capital in rural area. The analysis is from three perspectives：the microscopic mechanism of the migration decision theory，the macroscopic institutional factors that affect the effective rural-urban migration and the institutional factors that restrict the human capital accumulation in the agricultural sector.

Chapter 7，based on the above study，it analyzes the necessity of building the “strong correlation” between the rural-urban migration and the rural human capital accumulation in China. It also discusses a framework to enhance the rise of rural human capital under the rural-urban migration. Then we explore suggestions to build an effective system of public policy and institutional environment，in the goal of transforming the relationship between China’s rural-labor migration and the rising of rural human capital from the “weak correlation” to the “strong correlation”.

Chapter 8，conclusions and the future work. It summarizes the important conclusions of this paper and some further research directions.

Keywords：Rural-urban Migration；Rural-urban Migration Labor；Human Capital；Human Capital Accumulation in Rural Area